A prominent CNN anchor displayed surprise during a recent segment when a network polling analyst revealed that former President Donald Trump is currently positioned in a stronger position than he was during his 2020 campaign.
In a conversation with host Jim Acosta, analyst Harry Enten discussed current polling data that suggests Trump is gaining momentum in a manner not seen during his previous campaign, which took place amid the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Referring to a Quinnipiac University survey from February, Enten highlighted that President Joe Biden was leading by a mere 2 points at the time. However, now, Biden holds only a one-point lead, “well within the margin of error,” according to Enten.
“Take away one thing from this, and one thing only if you take away only one thing, and that is, I think there are a lot of Democrats who simply can’t believe that Donald Trump can be elected president again — the polling indicates that Trump is, in fact, in a stronger position at this point than he was during the entire 2020 campaign, according to the national polls,” Enten emphasized.
He further speculated, “If we had state-level polling, I wouldn’t even be surprised if Trump were ahead in the swing states that are most important.”
This revelation appeared to stun Acosta, who acknowledged the significance of Trump’s current standing in the national polls and its implications for the upcoming elections.
In the realm of swing states, Trump is leading his anticipated Democratic opponent, as per polling data from Echelon Insights published in July.
The survey unveiled that 48% of respondents in swing states would likely or definitely vote for Trump, compared to 41% for Biden. While Biden holds a slight lead among likely voters overall, with 43% favoring him against 42% for Trump, Trump could secure 270 Electoral College votes by capturing the swing states, according to the Washington Examiner.
Furthermore, if the Green Party’s Cornel West, a challenger, is factored in, Biden’s hold on the total vote isn’t assured. The poll suggests that West could attract a substantial portion of Biden’s liberal voters, potentially enough to tip the majority of the vote in favor of Trump.
Considering West, Biden’s share of the vote drops to 42%, with West gaining 4% of the vote. In this scenario, Trump emerges with 43% of the vote. The Examiner highlighted that Trump’s lead in swing states solidifies when West is considered, remaining at 48%, while Biden’s drops to 40%.
West’s role as a third-party candidate could significantly influence the final outcome of the next year’s election.
“Third-party candidates can impact the Electoral College results, particularly if they receive enough votes in a battleground state or states to change the outcome,” said Prof. David B. Cohen of the University of Akron. He added, “In a close election, Cornel West could well be a spoiler.”
Furthermore, the Examiner noted that Biden’s prospects would deteriorate even more if artist Taylor Swift were to run as an independent candidate. This poll indicated that Swift could win 7% of the vote, primarily drawing votes from Biden. In this scenario, Biden’s share of the vote in swing states would drop to 38%, with Trump securing 43% of the overall vote, against Biden’s 41%.